EIU holds out for Akufo-Addo’s victory

The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) has reiterated in its latest country report that it expects the New Patriotic Party (NPP) to emerge victorious as Ghana heads to the polls in tomorrow’s crucial Presidential and Parliamentary elections.

The NPP flagbearer is taking his third shot at the Presidency having first lost out to the late John Mills in 2008 and then to incumbent John Dramani Mahama in 2012, and is bidding in what would be his final attempt at making it to the Flagstaff House.

Just like previous elections, tomorrow’s is expected to be keenly contested but the EIU, which in October predicted that a victory for Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo, insists the NPP man will come up tops in the ‘close election’.

EIU, which is the research and analysis division of The Economist Group in its November country report reiterated, ‘it expects a transition of power from the National Democratic Congress to the New Patriotic Party after the December 2016 elections, although there is a possibility of disputed results.

‘Even assuming disputed results, Ghana’s democratic and judicial systems are strong enough to prevent any systematic threat to the country’s stability. Tensions will therefore ebb after the election period is concluded,’ the report said.

An update sent by EIU to investors on November 28, further maintained that ‘our forecast of a close election result (and some associated unrest) remains in place. We also continue to predict an NPP victory as being the most likely outcome.”

Past forecasts

In the run up to the 2012 elections, the London-based Economist Intelligence Unit released a report forecasting that the ‘elections will be extremely close’ with John Mahama remaining ‘arguably the slight favorite.’

‘A number of recent events have bolstered the ruling NDC’s prospects ahead of the December elections. We continue to forecast that the elections will be extremely close, but the NDC is arguably becoming the slight favourite,’ the report stated.

Mr. Mahama eventually emerged winner of the polls with about 50.7 percent of the valid votes cast with the Mr. Akufo-Addo following closely with 47.74 percent. The result of that election was unsuccessfully contested by the opposition party at the Supreme Court.

In the 2008 elections, the EIU predicted, ‘There is a danger that the open campaigning by so many NPP figures will appear as an undignified scramble for power and may alienate the electorate.’

‘Overall, we expect the 2008 vote to be reasonably close.’

The late John Mills won that elections at a run-off overturning a first round deficit, ushering the NDC to power after eight years in opposition.

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