Dalilin da ya sa zaben Brazil ke da muhimmanci ga Amurka

Kasa da makonni biyu suka rage a yi zaben shugaban kasa da wasu suka bayyana mai matukar muhimmanci ga dimokuradiyya a Brazil, wanda aka dade ana jiran a yi a shekarar nan.

Ita kanta Amurka na bibiyar lamarin zaben shugaban kasa a Brazil sau da ƙafa. Shin me ya sa hakan?

Babu wani batu da ‘yan adawa ke amincewa da shi kai-tsaye a Amurka, amma kan zaben na Brazil  sun zama tsintsiya madaurinki guda.

"Zaben zai ja hankali, yana cike da tirka-tirka a lamuran da suka faru a karnin nan," in ji Steve Bannon, na hannun daman tsohon shugaban Amurka Trump, a hira da BBC.

"Wannan zaben, shi zai nuna makomar dimokuradiyyar Brazil da alakarta da Amurka," in ji Sanata Patrick Leahy, wani da ke bibiyar lamarin zaben.

A liyafar da aka yi kwanakin baya a Washington, ta murnar cika shekaru 200 da samun ‘yancin Brazil daga Portugal, batun da aka yi daban ne.

Akwai dalilai da dama da suka sanya zaben ya ja hankalin Amurka - batun kasuwanci, dimokuradiyya, sauyin yanayi da Trump.

A iya cewa makomar kasashen biyu tana kasa tana dabo, saboda sun kusan makara, saboda suna fuskantar matsaloli iri guda, suna son abu guda.

Mutane da dama ne suka mutu a kasashen biyu lokacin annobar korona, hasali ma su ne a gaba a duniya da annobar ta fi yi wa ɓarna, sannan a yanzu tattalin arzikinsu da tsadar rayuwa sun kai kashi takwas cikin 100.

Akwai huldar kasuwanci mai karfi tsakanin Amurka da Brazil da suka hada da man fetur, jirage, tama da karafa, da sauransu.

Yayin da Brazil ke sahun gaba a noman waken suya da lemon zaki, Amurka ce ke take mata baya ko dai a mataki na biyu ko na hudu.

Sannan gaba take ta fannin noman masara, kiwon kaji da talo-talo da shanu, sannan kuma Brazil ce ta biyu ko uku.

A shekarar 2021 China ta fi kowacce kasa zuba jari a Brazil, hakan ba karamin koma-baya ba ne ga Amurka, kasancewarta mai karfin fada a ji.

Don haka, damuwa kan wanda zai yi nasara a zaben shugaban kasa tsakanin Jair Bolsonaro, mai neman wa’adi na biyu, da tsohon shugaban kasa Luiz Inácio Lula na da matukar muhimmanci.

Sai dai abin da ya bambanta wannan lokacin da na baya, shi ne an dade ana samun karuwar jami’an gwamnatin Amurka da ke tattaunawa da bayyana ra’ayinsu kan zaben Brazil.

"Akwai zumudin son sanin abin da zai faru, daya daga ciki shi ne barazanar yi wa dimokuradiyya kafar ungulu," in ji Farfesa Carlos Gustavo Poggio na Kwalejin Berea a jihar Kentucky ta Amurka, kwararre a fannin alaka tsakanin Amurka da Brazil.

Ya kara da cewa an yi zaben da ya gabata cikin aminci, "Yanzu muna da shugaban kasa da ya bayyana karara ba zai amince da sakamakon zabe ba, wanda kuma yake da alakar kud-da-kud da sojoji."

Tun bayan nasarar da ya yi a zaben 2018, karo da dama shugaba Bolsonaro ya yi ta nanata cewa an tafka magudin zabe ba tare da wata kwakkwarar shaida ba.

Tun shekarar 1996, Brazil ke amfani da fasahar intanet wajen kada kuri’a, ba a taba samun matsala a wannan lokacin ba.

A ziyarar baya-bayan nan da Shugaba Bolsonaro ya kai Birtaniya, lokacin jana’izar Sarauniya Elizabeth ta II, shugaban ya ce idan ya lashe kashi 60 na kuri’un da aka kada "to kuwa wani abu da bai dace ba ya faru’’ zai dora alhakin hakan ga hukumar zabe, saboda ita ce ta kirga kuri’u.

Tun da ake yin kuri’ar jin ra’ayin jama’a bai taba samun sama da kashi 35 cikin 100 ba, sannan ko a maki Lula ya ba shi tazarar maki 10.

A wasu lokutan kuma, yakan ce zai amince da sakamakon zaben, sai dai wasu sun ga alamun abin da Bolsonaro yake yi, da tsohun shugaban Amurka Donald Trump ya dinga yi kan sakamakon zaben da ya sha kaye hannun Shugaba Joe Biden, da yake ta ikirarin an tafka magudi amma babu wata kwakkwarar shaida.

"Brazil da Amurka, tamkar dan Juma ne da dan Jummai," kamar yadda tsohon mataimakin sakataren harkokin cikin gida Thomas Shannon, kuma jakadan Amurka a kasar Brazil a farkon shekarun 2010 ya ce.

Duk abin da ya shafi dimokuradiyyar wannan kasa dayar ma yana shafarta. 

Me suka ƙudiri aniyar yi?

Lula

Mai ra’ayin sassauci, tsohon shugaban kungiyar ‘yan kasuwa

• Kara daukar matakin kare dajin Amazon

• Kakkabe yunwa a kasar, Karin kudaden shiga ta hanyar fito da shirye-shirye

• Dawo da alaka tsakanin Brazil da kassahen  waje, da shugabanci na gari a yankin.

Bolsonaro

• Fitaccen mai ra’ayin rikau, tsohon kyaftin din soji, ba shi da wani tasiri a siyasa

• Ya yi sauye-sauye a fannin fansho da aka dade ana jira, ya yi alkawarin ci gaba da kawo sauyi a jihohin Brazil

• Ya sha alwashin yaki da wariyar jinsi, da tafiyar da mulki kan tafarkin addinin Kirista

• Bai wa 'yan kasa damar mallakar makamai.

A jawabin baya-bayan nan ga ‘yan kasa, Shugaba Biden ya bayyana karar ya amince tsarin Trump da ya kira "kara ci gaban Amurka" babbar barazana ce ga dimokuradiyya.

Tuni wasu suka gano yadda Amurka ta damu da zaben Brazil, idan aka yi waiwayen abin da ya faru a watan Janairu, lokacin da magoya bayan Trump suka far wa ginin majalisun dokoki bayan shan kaye a hannun Biden.

A wata hira da sashen Brazil na BBC, sakatariyar harkokin siyasar kasashen waje ta ce, "abin da ya kamata a yi a Brazil shi ne sahihin zabe ta hanyar amfani da tsarin da aka yi amfani da shi da kuma ‘yan kasa suka amince da shi".

An kwarmata bayanan wata hira tsakanin shugaban hukumar tsaro ta CIA, William Burns, da mataimaki na musamman ga Bolsonaro, a ciki Burns na cewa shugaban Brazil din ya daina sanya shakku kan zaben da ke tafe.

Amma Bolsonaro ya ce sam ba haka ba.

Al'adar Amurka na far wa Brazil

‘Yan siyasar Amurka na shiga batun ba da wasa ba.

Sanata Leahy ya bi tawagar su Bernie Sandersda wasu ‘yan jam’iyyar Democrat hudu, domin samar da wata cibiyar warware rikicin siyasa a Brazil.

Haka ma a majalisar wakilai, da ta dattijai, ‘yan Democrat sun yi wannan kokarin ganin an daina bai wa Brazil tallafin soji.

"Wani lokacin ba a sanin abin da aka tattauna, wani lokacin sai an samu wanda ya tsegunta, amma batun daya ne na kokarin aike sakon da Amurka ke son sani," in ji Nick Zimmerman, tsohon mataimaki ga gwamnatin Amurka zamanin mulkin Shugaba Obama.

Diga ayar tambaya kan hukumar zabe bas hi ne kadai abin da Bolsonaro da Trump suka yi kamanceceniya ba, wanda shi ma ake yi masa lakabi da Trump din Brazil.

Dukkansu, sun yi gangamin yakin neman zabe mai ban mamaki, sun yi alkawarin magance tsofaffin ‘yan siyasa da suka ki matsawa ko ina, duk da cewa Bolsonaro  ba shida karfi ta fuskar siyasa.

Duk sun karfafa gwiwar kare muradun ‘yan kasa, da halatta mallakar makamai, inda a Brazil hakan ya sanya a karon farko an samu farar hula mallakar bindiga fiye da hukumar ‘yan sandan kasa.

Duka shugabannin biyu sun yi fice a shafukan sada zumunta.

"Bolsonaro gwarzo ne a wajenmu," in ji Bannon, ke ganin Brazil ta yi fice a duniya.

"Salon shin a kamanceceniya da na firaiministan Hungary Victor Orban, a matsayin wanda ya yi tsayuwar daka wajen mutunta muradun ‘yan kasa. Yana damawa da wanda ya dace a gwamnati.

Ta wani bangaren kan batun zaben nan, yadda Lula ya bukaci ‘yan Brazil su ba shi dama a karo na biyu, wanda wa’adin mulkin da yayin a karshe ya kare a shekarar 2010, a matsayin shugaban kasar da ya yi fice a tarihin Brazil, amma tun daga lokacin aka samu rabuwar kawuna tsakanin ‘yan kasa.

Bayan Dilma Rousseff ta hau Mulki, kasar ta fada matsin tattalin arziki, lamarin da ya sanya aka damke Lula kan tuhumar cin hanci da rashawa, aka kuma yanke masa hukuncin zaman kaso.

Duk da cewa daga bisani an janye hukunci , yawancin ‘yan kasar na masa kallon yana daga cikin wanda suke jan ragamar rashawa a kasa.

Wani abun da ya kara sanya ‘yan takarar zarra, ba zai wuce kan manufarsu ga siyasar kasashen da Amurka, lamarin da ke shafar duniya baki daya.

Shekarun da suka gabata Brazil ta dauki aniyar kare daji mafi girma a duniya wato Amazon. Amma gwamnatin Bolsonaro ta rage kashe kudaden kare dajin.

A bara sai da aka binciki ministan muhallin kasar, Amurka ta zarge shi da kan gudanar da abubuwan da za su bata muhalli da ba a bi ka’idar da ta dace ba.

"Ta bayyana kan kalubalen da ake fuskanta na sake alkinta dajin Amazon. Matakin da Brazil ta dauka na da alaka da yadda duniya ke fassara halin ko in kula da ta ke nunawa," in ji Shannon.

Lokacin gangamin yakin neman zaben shugaba Biden a shekarar 2020, ya shaida wa Amurkawa ya kamata su jagoranci ba da tallafin dala biliyan daya da zai taimakawa Brazil biyan kudin da za ta kula da dajin Amazon.

Wannna alkawari har yanzu ba  asan inda ya fada ba. Babban dalilin hakan kamar yadda wadanda suka san lamarin ke cewa, shi ne rashin tabbacin ko gwamnatin Bolsonaro za ta ba da hadin kai.

Karara Lula ya ke bayanin abin da zai wa dajin na Amazon, zai yi duk abin da ya dace domin bashi kariya ko da hakan zai batawa wasu rai, sai dai shi da wanda ya gaje shi sun hadu tare da gina madatsar ruwa a tsakiyar Amazon, wanda hakan ya janyo nakasu ga dajin da halittun da ke ciki.

Idan tsarin Lula ya zo daidai da wanda Amurka ta yarda da shi, akwai alamun dangantaka tsakaninsa da Cuba, da Venezuela da Nicaragua ta hana Amurkar rabar shi.

Ya yi fice a kawancen BRICS da ya kunshi kasashen Rasha da China da Afirka ta Kudu da Brazil a ciki, wanda shugabannin kasashen yamma suke wa kallon babbar matsala gare su.

A wani bangaren, karkashin mulkin Bolsonaro a shekarar 2019, a karon farko a tarihi, Brazil ta kada kuri’an amincewa kan matakin haramta sai da wa Cuba makamai wanda Amirka da Isra’ila  ke ciki.

Idan Bolsonaro sukai gaba da gaba da Biden, zai iya tunatar da shi kan abin da ya kira yada tsarin kwamuni, da harshen Latin Amirka.

Amma kan wani boren daga Amirka, shuban Brazil din ya kai wa takwaransa na Rasha Vladimir Putin ziyara a birnin Moscow a shekarar nan, makwanni biyu gabannin ya mamaye da fara yaki da Ukraine.

A ra’ayin Shannon, ko ma wa ya yi nasara a zaben shugaban kasa a Brazil, zai taka rawa wajen gyara alaka da kasashen waje, wanda Amirka ke tsananin bukatar aiki da shi, ba tare da shakku, ko um’amalar dole ta ciki na ciki.

"Banbancin da ke tsakanin Amurka da Brazil shi ne, ita Amurka tana da karfin fada a ji a duniya, kuma sun san da hakan," in ji shi.

"Maganar gaskiya ita ce, Brazil tana da karfi tamkar Amurka, matsalar ita ce, har yanzu ta kasa gane hakan."



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