The World Bank Group
The World Bank's April 2024 Commodity Outlook Report foresees a significant 6 percent decrease in global food prices for the year, with an additional 4 percent decline anticipated in 2025.
The projected reduction is primarily attributed to lower prices for grains, oils, and meals, while other food items may experience price gains in 2024. However, a broader decline in food prices is expected in 2025.
The grains price index is set to plummet by 11 percent in 2024 due to increased global grain supplies. Wheat prices are forecasted to drop by 15 percent in 2024 owing to heightened production, with an additional 2 percent decrease projected for 2025.
These projections arise amidst intense export competition, slightly higher production rates, and relatively increased consumption, along with the lowest end-of-season stocks-to-use ratio seen in eight years.
Global maize production is poised to reach a record high in the 2023–24 seasons, while global rice production remains steady, resulting in the stock-to-use ratio falling to its lowest level in three years.
Rice prices are expected to surge by 8 percent (year-on-year) in 2024 due to tight global markets and export restrictions imposed by India.
Meanwhile, in Ghana, a reversal in food disinflation is evident, as the food inflation rate spiked from 27.0 percent in February to 29.6 percent in March 2024.
This increase in food inflation occurs against the backdrop of ongoing concerns about food insecurity in the sub-Saharan region. While global food prices are anticipated to decline, the impact of these changes on Ghana's food market and overall food security remains uncertain.