New Patriotic Party (NPP)
The NPP elects its flag bearer at the special delegates conference. Article 13(1) of the NPP constitution states that: “The election for the party's presidential candidates shall be held not later than 24 months from the date of the national elections.”
Without ambiguity, the above constitutional provision has been sidestepped because we have less than 24 months to the general elections.
In any case, that isn't the purpose of this write-up nonetheless. The purpose is to project the upcoming elections.
Who is in and who is out?
The interesting part of this election is to cut down on the number of potential aspirants. Which will unequivocally brace up the party in unity with a realistic number of candidates aftermath of the conference.
This is the first phase toward the choice of a flag bearer. After these functional levels conference, which seeks to prune the number from ten to five aspirants, the second phase in due course will ultimately choose the one for the 2024 presidential election.
It is expected that the functional levels or the special delegates' conference will have smaller numbers (almost about 1000 delegates) from the constituency through regional to national levels of the party. While, the greater numbers (over 200000 delegates) spam or cover from the branch to the national levels of the pool of officers from past leaders, MMDCEs, ministers, council of elders, area coordinators, polling station representatives, constituency executives, regional executives, and the national levels of the party.
The motive is ensuring five cut-off points who are expected to cross this line?
And who are they in my opinion? Dr. Bawumia, Alan Kyerematen, Boakye Agyarko, Kwabena Agyapong, and Kennedy Agyapong.
Indeed, if my projection is right, then the second phase of the delegate conference will be competitive between Dr. Bawumia and Alan Kyerematen. That is only if all these five candidates will fight to the end without any of them stepping down to fight against one candidate. However, if some of them (2 or 3 candidates) have decided to throw their weights behind any of the two competitive candidates the finality would play out on that aided candidate.
Note: In my opinion, in terms of the first five, Kennedy Agyapong’s numbers will surprise everyone due to his cordiality with the grassroots of the party. That is, a third force to reckon with. Indeed, interpersonal relationships will be the springboard to his chances of pulling significant numbers, though may not largely affect Alan Kyerematen but Dr. Bawumia.
This is because Dr. Bawumia is going into this election to battle experienced candidates who prefer Mr. Alan to him as a torchbearer. They have made up their minds and nothing will change it.
Therefore, Dr. Bawumia needs more efforts to stand against the tides after the first phase. It's not going to be that easy for him. He is going to face the most experienced politicians who are "food mixers" to his candidature.
To mince no words, Dr. Bawumia is very likely to lead the first phase of the conference. However, that will not openly show his way toward the ultimate. The types of voters in the first phase favor him more than the other competitors. That doesn't mean however that the second phase is guaranteed for him.
The types of voters in the second category may not be influenced by government machinery or money. Moreover, over 200000 delegates are likely to speak the voices of the majority of party members. Therefore, it will be very difficult to assume their voting pattern.
Precedents had taught a lesson in this regard-the case of the government's support to one candidate in Legon which delegates had woefully rejected despite Cash dole-out.
This is a projection, not by any scientific research.