Aftermath of a flood
New research from the University of East Anglia (UEA) in the UK says even a modest (small) temperature increase of 1.5°C will spell significant flood risks for parts of Ghana, Ethiopia, Egypt, India, China, and Brazil.
The study examined six countries all considered to be vulnerable to climate change, selected from different continents, spanning different levels of development and ranging considerably in size.
The research aims to quantify flood risks due to global warming and make the results comparable at the country level by using a consistent set of models, climate scenarios, baseline and future time periods, and hazard metrics.
Dr. Yi He and her colleagues at the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change at UEA led the research. They looked at fluvial flood risks for six global warming levels between 1.5 and 4°C by 2100.
In a press release from the University of East Anglia (UEA), Dr. Yi He said: “Our results indicate that return periods of one-in-100-year floods in the late 20th century are likely to decrease with warming, meaning an increased number of people will be exposed to flood risks, particularly with 4°C warnings.
"Exposure in the major river basin areas in the six countries increases significantly, ranging from a doubling in China to more than 50-fold in Egypt. Limiting warming to 1.5°C would decrease the risks, resulting in increases ranging from 12% in China to around 13-fold in Egypt.”
Dr. Yi is an Associate Professor in Hydrology and Climate Change Research at the UEA’s School of Environmental Sciences.
The study, which is ‘Quantifications of impacts between 1.5°C and 4°C of global warming on flood risks in six countries', was published in Climatic Change on January 25, 2022.