The political development of Ghana has followed a path of harmony and peace. It is challenging to pinpoint how Christianity or Islam, the two most prevalent religions in the nation, have influenced election results within the religious context. In Ashanti and the Volta Regions, we may in fact have a little bit of our own ethnic tilt in the political equation.
That is still far from the case in Nigeria, where race and religion are seen as major determinants of elections in the West African nation. In comparison to the early years of the 4th Republic, the phenomena is now steadily subsiding, even in the case of the NPP's supremacy in Ashanti and the NDC's in Volta Regions.
Hon. Peter Amewu, the MP for Hohoe in the Volta Region, represents the NPP today for the first time during the current administration. The NDC has demonstrated a strong presence and stability over the years, winning an average of three constituencies in the Ashanti Region. And not just that. In our most recent elections, the main opposition party also performed well in the Ashanti Region.
That explains why the assertion made by the so-called pollster, Ben Ephson, that Vice President Bawumia's presidential bid is being bolstered by his Northern ethnic origin and religious concerns is made fun of by many historians and observers of Ghana's political history. Regarding the later preposition, "pollster" Ephson draws the conclusion that Dr. Bawumia's good welcome in the churches and mosques he visited is proof that the two religious groups favor him.
No genuine presidential contender or aspirant will, in fact, rely entirely on the metrics offered by Ben Ephson and hope to have any meaningful influence on any given Ghanaian election, according to history. By far, there are other, more urgent factors to take into account, primarily the economy of communities or individuals. If not for the psychological trick the "pollster" and his allies are trying to pull on some gullible and susceptible NPP delegates, one has to question the motivation behind such categorical projection by the "pollster".
Ben Ephson's ethnic and religious predictions, aside from the apparent mind games, are based on the visually appealing inferences he formed from the context in which the Vice President interacted with the two respective faiths. Such common ideas about distant spectatorship are not supported by historical or scientific evidence. Which NPP presidential candidate then becomes the obvious question: "Which church or mosque in the nation did they visit and were met with hostile reception?" Not Alan, for sure!
Ben Ephson thinks that even if history has proved that the relevance of such a preposition within our political course is nearly a façade, the bulk of the Muslim community will support a Bawumia candidacy since they view the Vice President as one of their own. However, people of Northern ancestry are not necessarily favored by the political history of Ghana's Northern regions. The Vice President is from the North Eastern region, namely Mamprusi. The Mamprusis and Kusasis are important players in the political decisions made in their region.
Because they do not pursue a common target or goal in their setting, way of life, or pursuit of any type of politics, the two ethnic groups operate on separate political axes. Their conflicts have led to the rigmarole of fights for many years. The enskinment of an Overlord of Bawku may be the immediate cause of the conflicts between the two tribes. There are other undercurrents, though. The majority of Kusasis are not pleased with how the Kusasi-Mamprusi battle has been handled by the various administrations.
Some Mamprusis have even accused the Vice President of failing to use his position as the nation's second in command to put an end to the Mamprusi-Kusasi conflict. Finally, the Northern People's Party faction of the United Party, the political ancestor of the New Patriotic Party (NPP), historical treachery of Bawumia's father. Alhaji Mumuni Bawumia's 1964 switch to the Convention People's Party (CPP) hasn't been forgotten by many Mamprusis.
The Northern People's Party had three official leaders: S.D. Dombo, Abayefa Karbo, and Alhaji Mumuni Bawumia. Every time a member of the Bawumia family runs for national office, their painful reference to Mumuni Bawumia's cross carpet to the CPP serves as a significant marker. This author discovered that the Kusasi-Mamprusi conflict and the political and historical roots of the Mamprusis appear to be working in the former Trade Minister Alan John Kwadwo Kyerematen's favor.
The Dagombas are arguably the largest ethnic community with a significant impact on Northern politics. They have occasionally chosen their political positions with judgment, morality, and consistency over the years. Their political party affiliation is not necessarily a factor in the judgments they make. That explains why Akan candidate and former president Kufuor gained significant support in the Dagaomba region during the 2000 elections. The NPP has since established a significant presence in that area of the Northern Region. Delegates in Dagbon are therefore less likely to be swayed by the Mamprusi proxy than by a candidate's qualifications and track record of service to the NPP tradition.
In the case that Dagombas do not receive the NPP presidential candidacy, the vice presidency or running mate position is virtually automatically theirs. There have been many of these election variations in the NPP tradition's history dating back to 1979. Alhaji Yakubu Tali, the Tolon Na, a Dagbon native or a Dagomba, was chosen by the Popular Front group (PFP), a group with similar political inclinations and history to the NPP, to be Victor Owusu's running mate in the 1979 Third Republican elections.
NPP presidential candidate Prof. Albert Adu Boahene chose Diplomat Rowland Issifu Alhassan, a former MP for Tolon Kumbugu between 1969 and 1979, as his running partner for the 1992 elections. Alhassan, a lawyer, is also a Dagomba native. Then came Alhaji Aliu Mahama, a different Dagaomba, who ran for office in 2000 on John Agyekum Kufuor's ticket and ultimately rose to the position of Vice President of Ghana. So where is "the birth right" of the Dagombas with a Bawumia candidacy? Maybe they're asking.
Although this author is not entirely certain that a Dagomba running mate position has been promised, based on the political history of the NPP and its tradition, it cannot be ruled out that a Dagomba candidate may team up with a prospective Alan candidacy. What will happen to them if a Bawumia nominee is selected?Many political observers did not find it unexpected at all that the Ya Na symbolically enskinned Alan, the next gentle giant, as the NPP's presidential candidate in the 2024 elections, as the Overlord of Dagbon.
The sole departure from the "Dogomba right" on the NPP presidential ticket happened in 2008, when Dr. Mahmudu Bawumia, a Mamprusi, was selected as Akufo Addo's running mate. The false idea that the majority of Muslims in that region of the country are likely to support one of their own—Bawumia—is another Bawumia supporter rationale that is collapsing in the Northern regions. The Upper East, Upper West, and the Gonja regions of the Northern Territories are dominated by Christians, particularly Catholics, despite the lack of any scientific evidence to support this.
Even though there are Muslim communities in some parts of the Northern Region, they are not as numerous as Christians are in the Northern Ghana regions. Then comes the Zongo myth. Some supporters of Dr. Bawumia contend that the Zongo context in Ghana provides an almost blank canvas for the Bawumia appeal. It may be a recommendation based on a remote observation made without reference to the traits and content of the residents of Zongo communities. Despite the fact that the majority of Zongo locals speak Hausa, which is sometimes misunderstood by many to be a key language used to spread Islamic teaching, many Zongo residents are not necessarily Muslims.
Therefore, the apparent dominance of Hausa among Zongos does not provide a reliable indicator of how Islamic a Zongo setting is. People from all around the country, even from other countries, and of various religious beliefs are gathered at the Zongos. However, not all extractions from Ghana's northern regions are converted Zongo natives. Therefore, anyone who thinks that the Zongos are chosen for Dr. Bawumia because of their ethnicity and religious beliefs may be daydreaming.