Three weeks ago the US-trained military in Niger staged a coup against its own civilian government. This was the 4th coup among ECOWAS members in the past 3 years, and for the Nigerian-led block of west African nations trying to uphold the rule of law and civilian government in the region, it was definitely one coup too many.
Having failed to overturn the results of previous coups in Guinea, Mali, and Burkino Faso with mere diplomatic isolation, ECOWAS has drawn a line in the sand over Niger, cutting off all trade with the landlocked country (including up to 90% of its electricity), and threatening military intervention if the ousted President Bazoum is not returned to power.
The NYT has an informative article on Bazoum's background and some of the issues leading to his overthrow:
Mr. Bazoum was lauded in foreign capitals for his democratic credentials and tough stand against Islamist militants. But the coup and its aftermath have revealed his critics at home: the activists banned from protesting, the conservatives who objected to his advocacy of girls’ education, and the powerful generals he sought to sideline.
Likewise, the AP has an interesting interview with one of Bazoum's supporters who casts doubt on the supposed widespread support for the coup among the Niger population:
“What is happening in Niger, if it succeeds, is the end of democracy in Africa. It’s over. ... If we fight today, it is to prevent these kind of things from happening and to ensure a future for our continent,” Sabo said on Thursday. Sabo is deputy secretary general of Bazoum's Nigerien Party for Democracy and Socialism.
Sabo is one of the few openly outspoken critics of the junta still in the country and not in hiding.
Several ministers and high-ranking politicians are detained, with human rights groups saying they are unable to access them, while others have been threatened, he said. Sabo called the groundswell of support for the regime in the capital deceptive, because the junta was paying people to rally in its favor. Niamey was also never a stronghold for Bazoum and the junta is being opportunistic, he said.
But although there was real frustration from political parties and civil society organizations toward Bazoum's party, including disagreements with its military alliance with France, it's unclear how much genuine support the junta has in the capital and across the country, Sahel experts say.
“While many of those protesters may support the transition, it is probably the case that a sizeable amount of them are present only for monetary reasons or out of curiosity and the thrill of being part of the crowd,” said Adam Sandor, post-doctoral researcher at the University of Bayreuth.
The junta could face challenges with its support base across the country if it can't financially appease local elites and if the army continues to suffer losses from growing jihadi violence, he said.
Attacks by jihadis are increasing since the coup, with at least 17 soldiers killed and 20 injured earlier this week during an ambush by jihadis. It was the first major attack against Niger’s army in six months.
CNN also has a somewhat surprising look at how the Biden administration (or at least the US military) is viewing events in Niger:
The Pentagon is evaluating what authorities it can use to continue to operate in a primarily intelligence gathering role in Niger if the military takeover there is deemed a coup d’etat by the State Department – a legal determination that would strip the US military of some of its authorities and funding to engage in security cooperation with Nigerien forces.
If a coup determination is made, administration officials have also explored the possibility of issuing a waiver to allow certain US military activities to continue, officials told CNN. Congress for the first time last year incorporated the waiver into its 2023 omnibus spending bill, allowing the secretary of state to waive the restrictions on national security grounds.
Several of the junta leaders have worked with and been trained by the US as part of the US’ security cooperation with the country, officials said, and Nigerien military leaders have not voiced anti-American sentiment or asked the US to leave.
A key variable is Brig. Gen Moussa Barmou, the American-trained commander of the Nigerien special operations forces who has helped lead the military takeover and proclaimed himself Niger’s chief of defense.
Maj. Gen. J. Marcus Hicks, the former commander of Special Operations Command Africa who worked closely with Barmou, said he “is not anti-western,” and added that it would be feasible for the US to continue working with the Nigerien military.
“Barmou is a friend to a lot of us in the US military,” he said. “I have no sense that they want us to leave.”
The US military mission in Niger is one of the main reasons why the US has held off so far on legally declaring the situation a military coup d’etat, instead engaging in extensive diplomacy to try to reverse the Nigerien military takeover, officials said. The Economic Community of West African States, France, and the EU have all deemed the situation a coup.
For now, the pressure to pull out of the country is not as great as it would be if the Nigerien military asked the US to leave or if violence erupted.
So it looks like since at least some of the coup leaders in Niger were US trained, our military still hopes to be able to continue working with them, even if it puts the US at cross purposes with ECOWAS, France, and the rest of the EU?
Meanwhile, what of that threatened ECOWAS military intervention? The African Union seems to have raised a significant roadblock to that idea:
The African Union has rejected the use of force in Niger after a contentious 10-hour meeting of its peace and security council, Le Monde reported Wednesday, citing several diplomats who were present.
So what happens next?